How to Build an NBA Dynasty

2013 EOS Application

 * http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?page_id=5400
 * Submitted on 9 Nov. 2012

Tell Us About Yourself (200 Words or Less) * What are your qualifications for discussing this topic in an Evolution of Sport address?

I started researching how to build an NBA dynasty since my time as an undergrad at Colgate University, where my Senior year independent study was on "Determinants of Success in the NBA." I continued through a course at the Peer 2 Peer University where I wrote an updated version of the paper. Currently my work's centered at Wikiversity. My keen attention towards a General Manager's decisions towards building, or failing to build, a dynasty began watching Jerry Krause unsuccessfully bring the Bulls back to the NBA Finals.

With the Educational world, in 2009 I organized my my Educational services and publishing firm: Mr. Danoff's Teaching Laboratory. My work as owner has included consulting for The Saylor Foundation, developing Open Educational Resources (OER) for English as a second or other Language students; tutoring students online in South East Asia and giving talks at Educational conferences in Europe and North America.

Your EOS Idea Description (400 words or less) * What do you intend to talk about in your Evolution of Sport address?

I intend to share my work and insights regarding how to build and NBA dynasty with the sports community at large, specifically looking for statisticians whose ideas can help my research. The APBRmetrics community has been doing lots of wonderful analyzing the NBA from a statistical bent, and I wish to continue that with a clear question to answer: how do you build an NBA dynasty? Case studies to examine include:


 * Jerry Krause's successful building of the Bulls Jordan dynasty
 * His unsuccessful rebuild
 * Sam Presti developing the Oklahoma City Thunder into a contender
 * Daryl Morey's patient, confident asset accumulation with the Houston Rockets
 * Kevin O'Connor's Utah Jazz rebuilding post-Stockton and post-Williams miraculously fast
 * The Brooklyn Nets investing tens of millions in an old, declining team that cannot currently contend
 * Joe Dumars' Pistons “team” that won the title and their stalled reincarnation
 * Gregg Poppovich's teams who have won 4 NBA Championships
 * Jerry West's Shaq-Kobe Dynasty
 * Pat Riley's Miami Heat
 * Danny Ferry's LeBron James teams that never won a Championship

Comparing and contrasting how these GMs won and lost games specifically, but also whether there's a progression towards actually growing a team that contends, or wandering in circles. The New York Knicks have proven throwing money at trying to win championships does not work. They cannot be bought.

Statistics will be used as tools to specifically measure the merits of the GM's transactions over a 3 to 10 year period. Obviously unknown factors such as an owner's influence over decisions including how much he is allowing his manager go into the Luxury Tax to win and whether a city is desirable or not for Free Agents outside of its basketball team are relevant in the real world. For my analysis they will be considered as qualitative factors, but the emphasis will be on the quantitative decision evaluations.

To put it succinctly, I believe building a dynasty is the goal of every NBA franchise, but at this point the statistical community and those outside NBA offices do not have a reliable way to evaluate their GM's progress. I want a clear framework for how GMs can invest their assets: current players under contract, cap space, trade exceptions, draft picks, drafted players playing overseas, etc. akin to what the financial community has in Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers and/or Investment Banks' approaches to investment.